Course winners - racing’s little white lie
A common utterance from trainers around the racing world. But, are we seriously to believe that a horse, an animal not known for supreme intelligence, actually comes to a racetrack where it has been, perhaps, 3 or 4 times in the past 2 or 3 years and recognises the place, finds something it likes about it and then goes on to turn in an above average performance.
In my view, this is nonsense. To my mind there is nothing about ONE particular course or track that can have any sort of signifcant effect upon a horse’s performance. Often, a horse running good races at a cetrain track is nothing more than a coincidence. Every year there are thousands of horses in training. It is not surprising or at all statistically significant that for a percentage of horses a cluster of good performances might gather at a particular track. This effect is of course eccentuated when the trainer gets it into his or her head that a horse likes a certain course. The animal will then often be trained specifcally for a target at this supposedley favoured track. It is not at all surprising that on the day of the race the “trained to the minute” horse acquits itself well.
OK, so can we simpy ignore course winners in our analysis of a horse race, merely saying that coincidence and trainers’ actions have combined to produce something which, although appearing relevant, is actually not?
Things are rarely simple in horse racing and the answer has to be yes, and no. Yes, I believe individual course successes are not important, but if you see a horse constantly perforimg well at a particular TYPE of track then you have to take notice.
To my mind the physical make-up of a horse can sometimes affect its preference for a type of track. Some of these are obvious. A small compact horse will likely as not be well suited, compared to its rivals, by a tight, turning track. A tall gangly individual will fare better on straight tracks or courses with easy bends. Other factors may be less obvious. Some horses do not like to run in big fields. In my experience these types of horse may do better on tight, turning tracks. The tight turns mean that that the horses tend to run in line astern, perhaps only 2 abreast, to avoid giving away too much ground. The animal that prefers a small field will actually have the sensation that this is what it is running in today, because there will not be other horses all around.
Look for patterns. Compare types of tracks that a horse has run in, but also look at the impact that the track might have on the way that the race is run and how a horse’s apparent preferences fit in with this.
So, by way of summary, when you hear the trainer say, “He loves it here”, take this with a pinch of salt. But, DO have look at the horse’s form to see if a trend emerges. IF there is no genuine trend then the horse’s apparent good record at a particular track may be a red herring which will artificially and wrongly shorten the price of the horse and create value betting opportunities on other runners.
