Crafty Fox Racing

Is there room for imagination, gut instinct or feeling in serious horse race betting?  Can it play a part in betting sucess? Most other writers will tell you that there is not but, in my view, this is totally wrong.

I am not talking about guesswork or sticking a pin in a newspaper to select a possible winner.  I am not talking about an “I think most winners are going to have blue colours or an “I think it’s  a day for greys approach.” No, rather than guesswork, I am talking about genuine intuition based up on the very things I first mentioned, imagination, gut instinct and feeling.

These 3 things are actually grounded in your own knowledge, experience and research that you have carried out cover the course of your betting life and in your analysis of the race in question.

Let’s put a little more meat on these ideas.  Let’s say that you have analysed a race in some detail. You have read the racing papers, run the race through your computer software, considered the breeding of the animals involved and everything else that constitutes your personal race analysis routine. The numbers crunched you see that you have a worthy favourite with one seemingly dangerous opposition contender.  The strictly “this is the play here” bettor would look at the odds, see if either of the 2 contenders is a value bet and make the play accordingly.  He would do this everytime….and….MOST of the time he would be right……

But wait……Let’s say that you, as the more enlightened player, always use your imagination and take a moment to hear what your gut is telling you.  Just once in a while…. maybe once in every 10 or 15 races you spot something a little different.

There’s a horse down near the bottom of the list who’s been out of form for a while, the trainer has been a bit cold and it’s readily ignored by your average number crunchng bettor.  However,a look back a few races shows the anuimal has got a chance here, based on it’s very best form.  OK, it’s an inconsistent sort but has run well at today’s distance against better horses than it is facing today.  The favourite is certainly worthy but it’s only got a 1 in 4 win record and the other main contender looks good but he is up a little in trip today.

Mmmmmmn …Do you have a feeling or gut instinct about this race now?  It’s not based on guesswork, rather real knowledge based intuition, but this horse has a chance here.  OK, it’s priced at 20-1 and you know that these bets are not going to win everytime, but at that price you simply have to follow your gut instinct and make the bet.

It’s not going to happen every race, not even every day, but don’t be afraid to use your imagination.  Or you are really doing is occasionally adopting a slightly looser approach to spot a value bet.

So, what do you want to be…The number crunching automoton or the flexible, imaginative bettor relying on the numbers and facts but with a with a little latitude allowed for your own hard won knowledge and experience.