Crafty Fox Racing

Trainer X is is in great form at the moment, 14 winners in the last 7 days, or jockey Y is on fire - a treble yesterday, a double today, he’s the man to follow at the moment.

But what does this really mean? Is a run of supposed good form for a trainer or jockey worth following with your own cash. I, for one, would say absolutely not.  For one thing by the time this supposed run of good form becomes apparent the likelihood is that it will end as quickly as it started.

Furthermore, what is a run of good form?  Is a jockey really suddenly riding better for a period of a few weeks than he does for the rest of the year?  Is a trainer suddenly able to make his horse perform better for a few weeks of the season?

Of course not, and if it was true isn’t there something wrong when a professional at the top of his sport is only able to perform as his maximum for very occasional short bursts?  Surely owners and the betting public deserve better than that?

In my personal view these apparent bursts of good form are, in the main, nothing more than statistical blips. A top trainer or top jockey will have hundreds of runners and rides respectively during the course of a full season.  It is entirely likely, even predictable, that on occasions a group of winners will cluster together and create the perception that the trainer or jockey is in excellent form at present.

The only thing I would confess is that it is possible that when these winners do cluster together and the trainer and his staff or the jockey sense that they are in good form this manifests itself in a fraction of extra effort and confidence that might just pull a little more from their horses.  I do not believe, however, that this effect is great enough to warrant the bettor attempting to get on the so-called in form bandwagon and overcome the fact that these horses will be starting at artificially low prices.

One factor though that must always be watched out for is when a jockey or, even more so, a trainer is genuinely out of form.  I am not talking about a reverse statistical blip to that described above when there are a couple of lean weeks, with a few unlucky losers.  I am talking about a period when the horses are noticeably, seriously underperforming.  With regard to a jockey it is probably nothing more than a loss of confidence, something a winner will soon put right.  With, however, a trainer the underperformig horses could be the first indicators of a genuine problem in the stable, perhaps a virus or other illness that is starting to affect the runners. 

Often these things are cleared up by the vetererinary experts quite quickly and the normal winning percentage for the stable is soon resumed.  Every now and again though a serious affliction affects a stable and the runners are likely to be running unreliably or inconsistently for a lengthy period of time.

In this scenario I would consider that the trainer is genuinely out of form and the sensible course of action has to be to pass on betting the stable’s animals for the time being.

In summary, to me a so called in form jockey or trainer merely means that there is no reason not to bet the horse if there are other favourable factors that make it a sensible bet.  I would never follow blindly a stable or jockey “in form”.  Out of form can be a different matter if it appears, particularly with a trainer, that there might be a genuine problem in the stable.