Crafty Fox Racing

 

It is common when reading about horse racing to see the opinion ventured by trainers, jockeys and the media that a horse that was seen to be staying on well at the finish of its last race will do better when run at a longer distance.

In my view this opinion is quite often wrong.  If a horse finishes with a genuine burst of pace that takes it to within a short distance of the winner without actually quite reaching first place than I would accept that there is a case for saying that if the race were run again with a little further to go then the result could be different.

However, what about the races where we see a horse apparently running on well past beaten horses into third or fourth place without ever looking like it had a chance to win.

Is it the case that this horse possesses more stamina than its rivals and over a longer trip that staying on would be taking it into the lead, rather than third or fourth.

Many bettors seeing the horse stepped up in trip will think it has a better chance and will place their wagers accordingly.

My view, however, is that this horse will have no better or worse chance because of the step up in trip.

I firmly believe that when we see a horse staying on at the same pace into third or fourth place we are usually watching a horse that lacks what I would call “tactical pace” - the crucial thing that very often sets apart horses which win frequently compared to those who do not.

In most races a vital period is reached, usually with between 1/4 and 1/2 a mile to go when everything begins in earnest; the leader kicks for home, horses begin their runs from the back, jockeys manoeuvre to get their mounts in the best possible postion to challenge.

It is at this point that a horse needs to be able to accelerate quickly to make the break, pick up the leaders or speed through a narrowing gap.  This sudden need for maximum effort will very often decide the race in favour of the horse with the best tactical pace.

The horse that lacks this tactical pace cannot make the moves it needs to win the race…..so what does it do? It simply keeps on galloping at the same speed towards the finish.  Very often this one paced running will actually take it past horses which did display some tactical pace to at least make an effort to win the race.  The sudden burst of effort is enery sapping, particularly when compared to the even paced running of the horse that has not shown any tactical speed.

So what we see is this horse running on past beaten rivals, apparently laden with stamina….But why should the same horse being run over a longer distance next time suddenly develop that crucial tactical pace.

It won’t.

More often than not in the longer race exactly the same thing will happen as before.  At the moment a crucial burst of speed is required our one-paced friend will be found lacking once more. Again, he will miss the vital moment and will merely gallop on past rivals, who by attempting to win with tactical pace, have not run the same even paced race he has.  It must be remembered that the most efficient way for a horse to run over any given distance is at an exactly even pace.  Of course though horse races are run at varying paces and a burst of effort or speed at some point is almost always required to win.

So remember, a one paced staying on horse is certainly not a better bet just because it’s next race is over a longer distance.